After the sharp price increases of recent years, the food raw materials market has entered a more stable phase. However, this does not mean that the pressures have disappeared. Climate conditions, energy, fertilisers and logistics continue to affect costs, while individual raw materials are following increasingly divergent trends.
For Food & Beverage companies, knowing whether a price is rising or falling is not enough. What matters most is understanding how it may evolve, assessing its impact on margins and ensuring continuity of supply.
A market moving at different speeds
According to the FAO Food Price Index, the global food price index stood at 130.3 points in June 2026, slightly lower than in May but still 1.7% above its June 2025 level.
Behind this apparent stability, contrasting trends are emerging: vegetable oils and meat recorded increases, while cereals, sugar and dairy products experienced price declines.
Cereals, in particular, demonstrate how quickly the situation can change. In June, the FAO cereal price index fell by 3.5%, with wheat prices decreasing by 4.4% and maize prices by 6.2%. Harvests, weather conditions and availability on international markets nevertheless remain difficult to predict.
Data from Europe and Italy
According to Eurostat, average agricultural output prices in the European Union decreased by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025.
The most significant declines concerned milk, whose price fell by 15.5%, and cereals, which decreased by 11.7%. However, lower market prices do not indicate a complete return to normality: during the same period, the cost of fertilisers and soil improvers increased by 6.6%.
These expenses are compounded by energy, processing, packaging and transport costs, which continue to influence the final price of food products.
In Italy, inflation stood at 3.0% in June 2026, according to ISTAT data. The rate of increase for the so-called “shopping basket” slowed from 1.9% to 1.3%, while unprocessed food prices remained 4.4% higher than a year earlier.
A decrease in the price of a raw material is therefore not immediately reflected in retail prices. Between the source and the final consumer, several factors come into play, including processing, energy, packaging, logistics, distribution and promotional activities.
Supply chains to monitor
- Cereals, which are essential for pasta, flour and bakery products.
- Milk and dairy products, which remain exposed to energy and processing costs.
- Vegetable oils and olive oil, which are particularly sensitive to climate conditions and Mediterranean harvests.
- Coffee, cocoa and sugar, whose price trends can be influenced by harvest yields, weather conditions and availability on international markets.
Compared with previous years, the outlook for 2025–2026 appears less critical, but it remains fragile. For Food & Beverage companies, purchasing at the lowest possible price is not enough. They also need continuity of supply, margin control, reliable partners and flexibility in managing price lists and product ranges.
Venietiam supports producers and industry operators in interpreting market developments, helping them build commercial proposals that keep pace with changes in international supply chains and the requirements of different distribution channels.
Sources consulted
FAO, Food Price Index — https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/
Eurostat, Agricultural prices decreased in Q1 2026 —
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20260611-1
ISTAT, Consumer Prices, June 2026 — https://www.istat.it/comunicato-stampa/prezzi-al-consumo-giugno-2026/